Based on current analysis, the potential of LPA WP47 (Invest 96W) to form into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 24 hours is now HIGH at 70-80% chance.
ManilaTC is now issuing a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for the Low Pressure Area to the East of the Samar Islands in the Philippine Sea. Meaning that the likelihood of this system to become a Tropical Depression is now possible over the next 24 hours.
At 2pm today, LPA WP47 (Invest 96W) is located 800 km East of Samar, moving to the West-Southwest at 35 kph. Outer rainclouds of this system have begun to affect the Visayas and Mindanao regions.
Should PAGASA upgrade this system, it will be locally named as MARIO. Then if it reaches Tropical Storm strength, it will be named internationally as Fung-Wong.
This alert will be valid until the next 12 hours, and will be reissued or cancelled or upgraded depending on the status of the system.
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ManilaTC is now monitoring another Tropical Disturbance -- 280 km Outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, east of Samar Island.
Disturbance WP47 (Invest 96W) has shown more organization over the last 12 hours. It is currently drifting to the West/WNW and may enter the PAR tonight or early tomorrow. Forecast models are mixed on developing this system.
ManilaTC will keep monitoring the system and will post the next update tomorrow, unless major developments occur.
A new Tropical Depression (15W) has formed far to the East of the Visayas today. This system is poised to enter the Philippine AoR late today or early tomorrow and will be locally named "LUIS". The JTWC in Hawaii has released its third warning on the system, while PAGASA-Manila has included in its advisories.
The storm has been located 390 km North-Northwest of Yap Island, and is forecast to track into the North Philippine Sea towards Northern Luzon by early next week.
JMA-Tokyo still considers the system a LPA.
Interests in Luzon and Taiwan should monitor this system as it continues to develop.
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