A new tropical disturbance has formed south of the island of Guam, near Chuuk and is being monitored by the numerous agencies around the region.
WP04 was last spotted at 5.4°N, 148.5°E at 2pm today. This is around 425 km Southwest of Chuuk or 970 km South-Southeast of Guam, USA... winds in the system were found at 25 kph (15 knots) and is drifting to the Northwest. Long-Range models have shown the system to become the next significant system in the coming days, although the track is still uncertain, owing to the long range nature of the forecast. ManilaTC shall continue to post updates regarding WP04 as the days pass. Disturbance WP89 (29W) has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and at the same time has become the 34th Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific as a Tropical Depression. PAGASA-Manila has named the system as VINTA. JMA-Tokyo has been tracking the system since yesterday as well. VINTA is posing a threat to Luzon within the next 3-4 days. NO PAGASA STORM SIGNALS HAVE BEEN RAISED AT THIS TIME. At 8 am today (00Z), the center of TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINTA (TC34) has been located at 15.1°N, 134.2°E, about 1,360 kms East-Southeast of Baler, Aurora or 1,320 kms East-Northeast of Polilio Island in Quezon Province... with Maximum Sustained Winds of 55 KPH (30 Knots) and gusts of 70 KPH (40 Knots)... VINTA (TC34) is currently moving to the WEST at 30 KPH in the general direction of Eastern Luzon... and is expected to become a Tropical Storm within the next 24 hours. Current model tracks depict the storm to track West all throughout the forecast period, towards Eastern Luzon. Residents and Interests on Luzon island should keep watch on the path of this storm, especially those preparing to travel for the All Saints/All Souls day holiday this weekend. ManilaTC UPDATE #2 | FORMATION ALERT DISTURBANCE #WP89 (INVEST 98W/JMA TD) 0700 AM 2300Z MONDAY 28 OCTOBER 2013 Tropical Disturbance WP89 (98W) has further consolidated and is now subject to a Formation Alert by ManilaTC. JMA-Tokyo, TMD-Bangkok, and CWB-Taiwan consider the system as a full Tropical Depression. At 5 am today, WP89 (98W)'s center of circulation has been located at 12.2°N, 141.3°E... about 450 KM Northeast of Yap Island, Micronesia or 405 KM West-Southwest of Guam, USA... Winds of 45 to 55 KPH (25 to 30 Knots) have been found within the system... WP89 (98W) is moving to the WEST at 25 KPH. WP89 (98W) is forecast to become a Tropical Depression within the day. JMA-Tokyo is pushing for Tropical Storm status after 24 hours. WP89 (98W) is to enter the Philippine AoR by tomorrow and would be named locally as VINTA. If JMA-Tokyo will upgrade to a storm, it will be named KROSA. WP89 (98W) is currently forecast to track towards Luzon and may reach the island by the All Saints Day weekend holiday. Please take note that this forecast are at least a few days ahead and every forecast may change significantly every day. Interests in the Philippines particularly Luzon should take this system into consideration as they make preparations for the All Saints Day holiday weekend. MTC ANALYSIS | The potential of Disturbance WP89 to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours is now upgraded to LIKELY, with 67% chance. ManilaTC A new Tropical Disturbance has developed Southeast of Guam, USA and has been tagged as WP89 by ManilaTC. LPA WP89 was last spotted at 10°N, 147°E... about 490 km Northeast of Chuuk Island, Micronesia or 520 km Southeast of Guam, USA... Maximum winds within the disturbance are at 25 KPH (15 Knots), and WP89 has tracked to the West at 15 KPH. WP89 is considered an LPA by JMA-Tokyo, CWB-Taiwan, TMD-Bangkok, BoM-Sydney, and NWS-Guam. This disturbance is unanimously forecast by computer models to develop into a Tropical Cyclone, with JMA pushing the system to become a Tropical Depression in the next 24 hours. Looking forward, LPA WP89 is forecast to track West/WNW and may affect or hit Luzon during the All Saints Day holiday weekend. Please take note that this forecast is 4-5 days ahead and may change significantly every day. MTC ANALYSIS | The potential of Disturbance WP89 to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours is MEDIUM, with 49% chance. ManilaTC SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANTI (Nari) has further intensified and increased its threat to Luzon as it continues to track West/WNW. SANTI (Nari) may make landfall as a TYPHOON in the coasts between Northern Quezon/Polillio Island and Baler, Aurora by late Friday or early Saturday. All Interests in LUZON should monitor the progress of SANTI (Nari)... All concerned should follow or track the severe weather potential of the storm not just the track of the storm center. Please take note that any shift in the movement of SANTI (Nari) to the north or south of the forecast track can make a HUGE difference on the storm's potential effects in your area. PAGASA STORM WARNING SIGNALS (as of 11 am Warning) SIGNAL NUMBER 1 -- Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte ... meaning winds of 45-60 kph are expected in the next 36 hours. At 10 am today (02Z), the center of SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANTI (Nari) has been located at 15.0°N, 127.7°E, about 410 Km East-Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes... or 650 km North of East of Infanta, Quezon... or 660 km East-Southeast of Baler, Aurora... with Maximum Sustained Winds of 100 KPH (55 KTS) and gusts of 130 KPH (70 KTS)... with that Manila TC considers SANTI (Nari)already a Severe Tropical Storm... SANTI (Nari) is forecast to continue on its WEST to WEST-NORTHWEST track at 13 KPH towards Eastern Luzon. More at the jump so click READ MORE #HabagatWatch #FloodPH -- ORANGE Rain Warning remains in effect until 11:45 am Manila time9/23/2013 As of the last PAGASA Rainfall Advisory issued at 8:45 am, the ORANGE rainfall warning still remains over Metro Manila, Zambales and Bataan. These areas are being affected by heavy to at times intense rainfall and is most likely to continue for the next 3 hours. PAGASA-DOST RAINFALL WARNINGS | 23 September 2013, Monday ORANGE RAINFALL ADVISORY No. 1 Issued at 5:45AM 23 September 2013 Moderate to occasional heavy rains affecting Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, and Zambales for the next 3 hours Heavy to at times intense rainfall is affecting Metro Manila, Zambales, and Bataan and most likely to continue for the next 3 hours. However, moderate to heavy rains affecting Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga and portions of Laguna, Quezon, Cavite, and Occidental Mindoro which may persist within 3 hours.
Here is a list of Class suspensions, as of posting time
Metro Manila
As of the latest rainfall warnings posted by PAGASA around 12:05 pm today, Metro Manila and its surrounding provinces REMAIN under a YELLOW Rainfall Warning, and shall persist for the next three hours -- Manila TC The strongest tropical cyclone on the planet for this year (so far, we still have 4 months) has weakened into a Category 3 Typhoon after undergoing a EWRC (Eyewall replacement cycle). Latest data shows that the Typhoon is reintensifying after retaining an Eye. For a full explanation of a EWRC, see this Wikipedia article. Click Here. USAGI has also left the Philippine AoR last night, after making landfall over Itbayat Island in the Batanes Island Group as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. It was the strongest typhoon to hit Batanes (as typhoon-prone as they are) since 1987. USAGI (Odette) is now headed for a collision course with Hong Kong as of the moment. More info at the jump, so click Read More. The radar image on the right shows the Eye of Super Typhoon ODETTE (Usagi) causing a direct hit on the Islands of Batanes around 5-6 am Manila Time. At 6 am today Manila time, The eye of Super Typhoon ODETTE (Usagi) was last located at the vicinity of the Batanes Group of Islands or at 20.5°N, 122.2°E... 240 km North-Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan... ODETTE (Usagi) is moving on a WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK at 20 kph. Image courtesy of PAGASA Northern Luzon - Aparri Radar. More at the jump, so click READ MORE! PAGASA-Manila (finally - Ed.) has followed suit on its latest bulletin ramping up Super Typhoon ODETTE (Usagi) and prompted the raising of Typhoon Warning Signal Number 4. PAGASA TYPHOON WARNING SIGNALS (as of 11 am Warning) SIGNAL NUMBER 4 -- Batanes Group of Islands... meaning winds exceeding 185 kph are expected in at least the next 12 hours SIGNAL NUMBER 3 -- Calayan Group of Islands and Babuyan Group of Islands... meaning winds from 101 to 185 kph SIGNAL NUMBER 2 -- Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao... meaning winds of 61-100 kph are expected in the next 24 hours SIGNAL NUMBER 1 -- Abra, Kalinga, Isabela, Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, and Ifugao... meaning winds of 45-60 kph are expected in the next 36 hours At 11 am today Manila time, The eye of Super Typhoon ODETTE (Usagi) was last located at 19.5°N, 124.9°E... 330 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or at 340 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan... fix based on the ADT fixes... ODETTE (Usagi) is moving on a NORTHWEST TRACK at 18 kph. INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY WEATHER AGENCIES PAGASA-Manila -- Max 205 kph Gust 240 kph (10 min-average) CMA-Beijing -- Max 220 kph Gust 265 kph (10 min-average) JMA-Tokyo -- Max 205 kph Gust 270 kph (10 min-average) KMA-Seoul -- Max 195 kph Gust 235 kph (10 min-average) JTWC-Hawaii -- Max 260 kph Gust 315 kph (1 min-average) CWB-Taiwan -- Max 200 kph Gust 240 kph (10 min-average) HKO-Hongkong -- Max 195 kph Gust 210 kph (10 min-average) #ManilaTC #TyphoonWatch #SuperTyphoon #OdettePH #UsagiWP #HabagatWatch ODETTE (Usagi) has been given the SUPER TYPHOON title by JTWC-Hawaii and CMA-Beijing. The howler has now winds reaching 230 kph, a Strong Category-4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Sampson Scale. The Super Typhoon is now making its approach towards extreme Northern Luzon and Southern Taiwan, then go on its way towards Southern China-Hongkong area. PAGASA TYPHOON WARNING SIGNALS (as of 5 am Warning) SIGNAL NUMBER 3 -- Batanes Group of Islands... meaning winds of 101-185 kph are expected in at least 18 hours SIGNAL NUMBER 2 -- Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao... meaning winds of 61-100 kph are expected in the next 24 hours SIGNAL NUMBER 1 -- Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Abra, Kalinga, Isabela ... meaning winds of 45-60 kph are expected in the next 36 hours At 6 am today Manila time, The eye of ODETTE (Usagi) was last located at 19.1°N, 125.8°E... about 445 km East-Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 430 km East-Southeast of the Batanes Island Group... fix based on the ADT fixes... ODETTE (Usagi) is moving on a steady WEST-NORTHWEST to NORTHWEST TRACK at 20 kph INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY WEATHER AGENCIES PAGASA-Manila -- Max 175 kph Gust 210 kph (10 min-average) CMA-Beijing -- Max 220 kph Gust 265 kph (10 min-average) JMA-Tokyo -- Max 205 kph Gust 270 kph (10 min-average) KMA-Seoul -- Max 195 kph Gust 235 kph (10 min-average) JTWC-Hawaii -- Max 260 kph Gust 315 kph (1 min-average) CWB-Taiwan -- Max 200 kph Gust 240 kph (10 min-average) HKO-Hongkong -- Max 195 kph Gust 210 kph (10 min-average) *** PAGASA remains to be the lowest intensity among all the West Pacific agencies, and appears to avoid classifying storms above 185kph, its Signal 4 threshold. They keep underestimating. - Manila TC admin *** More info at the jump, so Click Read More. We now have two tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific, Severe Tropical Storm ODETTE (Usagi) barely moving east of Northern Luzon, and Tropical Depression TC31/18W in the South China Sea. A third disturbance is currently still persisting East of Guam and is also being monitored. More at the jump, so Click Read More :) Sorry we have been gone for a while, and we are back! ManilaTC admin has been dealing with some relocation issues lately and we would like to express our apologies to our ardent site followers. Now that TC29/Man-Yi has become an Extratropical Low over the Japanese Islands, we now put our attention to Tropical Storm Odette (Usagi) threatening the Northern parts of the Philippines. Meanwhile, a JMA Tropical Depression west of Vietnam and another Disturbance near Guam is also being tracked by Manila TC. More at the jump so click on Read More. Tropical Storm NANDO (KONG-REY) resumed its expected North-Northwest track after briefly moving to the Northwest yesterday, prompting PAGASA to raise storm warnings across some provinces in Northern Luzon... It is now more of a threat now to the Okinawa/Ryukyu Islands region Meanwhile, a new Tropical Disturbance has formed in the West Philippine Sea, west of Metro Manila at this time. More information at the jump regarding the two tropical systems and the Southwest Monsoon... So click Read More :) |
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