The Low Pressure Area WP03 (Invest 93W) has remained persistent around 850 km Southeast of Guam bringing showers in the Micronesian Islands. The system is considered dissipated by the JTWC in Hawaii in its last advisory, but ManilaTC still considers the system as active as most of the agencies in the region still carry the system.
Meanwhile, JMA-Tokyo has mentioned in its latest advisory this afternoon that a new tropical wave/disturbance has been found south of the Marshall Islands. ManilaTC shall be designating it as 05D, as the system is still quite new.
GFS remains the most bullish of the major computer models available in hinting that a tropical system to form near Guam by the end of next week perhaps going into the month of March, it remains to be seen if the other models say otherwise as well.
Again we maintain that the track and chance of formation is still very much uncertain, given the long range nature of the forecast and how the models initialize the system.
The potential of Disturbance WP04 to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours remains at MEDIUM with 48% probability.
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