The potential of Disturbance WP04 to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours remains at MEDIUM with 50% probability.
The main focus of this update remains the area of low pressure located near Guam and Chuuk Islands in the Pacific, namely LPA WP04 (Invest 93W)... Numerous agencies in the Pacific are still keeping watch on the system as it remains stationary over the last 24 hours.
This morning, LPA WP04 (93W) is located just near Chuuk island, about 1750 km outside of the Philippine AoR. The system remains stationary and is forecast to drift West-Northwest over the next few days, possibly drifting much closer to Yap State than to Guam in the coming days.
LPA WP04 (93W) has been encountering high amounts of wind shear in the upper levels, disrupting its organization... but the shear has shown signs of relaxing in the coming days. And given the high sea temperatures, LPA WP04 (93W) may move into an area of favorable conditions next week.
Reason why ManilaTC has been keeping watch on this system is because computer models have been consistent in developing LPA WP04 (93W) into a significant Tropical System, a Tropical Storm perhaps next weekend, over the last five days.
The Image to the left shows the GFS model run at 8am today, showing a 983mb Tropical Storm after 174 hours by Friday Next week. The track forecast shows a recurve to the NE after reaching yap.
Again we maintain that the track and chance of formation is still very much uncertain, given the long range nature of the forecast and how the models initialize the system. We have seen the track forecast deviate from a storm heading into the Philippines to a recurving one to the Northeast once it reaches the vicinity of Yap.
The whole loop can be seen here: CLICK TO VIEW
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