Tropical Disturbance WP54 (91W)'s potential development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours is now UPGRADED from Likely to HIGH, now with 73% chance. -- ManilaTC The Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded WP54 (91W) as a full Tropical Depression, moving North-Northwest at 7kph. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 11.0N 129.5E POOR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 14.2N 128.3E 120NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT While the Joint Typhoon Warning center has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) as well. 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.5E TO 17.4N 126.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BASED ON AN OLDER 241452Z OSCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN WEAKER NEAR THE CENTER, THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED VENTILATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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