Tropical Disturbance WP04 remains disorganized over the Micronesian Islands as it drifts Northwest towards the Guam. The disturbance is currently located at 7.5°N, 151.2°E at 2pm today... Intensity has not changed much as the system remains at 15 knots (25 kph)... The disturbance is currently moving slowly in a generally NORTHWEST direction.
Manila TC remains on watch as long-range forecast models are hinting at developing WP04 in the coming days. The GFS model remains the most aggressive with WP04 developing near Guam near the end of next week.
The potential of Disturbance WP04 to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours is at MEDIUM with 51% probability.
Please take note that the track and chance of formation is still very much uncertain, given the long range nature of the forecast and how the models initialize the system.
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